Swords of Damocles: Post ZANU PF´ National People´s Conference and the future of the Republic of Zimbabwe.
As the country grapples with high levels of unemployment, corruption, policy inconsistency, and lack of fiscal and monetary policy stability, inflation has skyrocketed to unprecedented levels. The democratic space has shrunk, and the government chooses a political-short termism approach in the formulation and implementation of public policies. Against this background, the ruling ZANU PF party convened its 21st National People’s Conference (NPC) at the Zimbabwe International Exhibition Centre in Bulawayo. This year´s conference was themed “Industrialize and Modernize Towards the Attainment of Vision. 2030.” the aim was to bring stakeholders, leaders, and its members together to discuss and strategize the national future. The NPC, according to the ZANU PF Constitution, has the responsibility to receive and consider reports of the Central Committee on behalf of Congress, coordinate and supervise the implementation of decisions and programs of Congress by the Central Committee, and make resolutions for implementation by the Central Committee.
Of utmost importance to note is the ZANU PF-Conference resolution, particularly to extend Presidential tenure beyond the two-term constitutional limits, which is currently set to end in 2028. The “ED2030” dubbed campaign was backed by the ZANU-PF 10 provincial committees and was expected to be solidified by the NPC. In the end, a shocker of an announcement was made by the ZANU-PF Secretary for Legal Affairs, Cde Patrick Chinamasa, who revealed that the President has committed to abide by the constitution of the Republic of Zimbabwe, which set his term limit to 2028. Although the Party has made several resolutions that extend to economic development, veteran affairs, cultural heritage, and social issues, among others, the key to the development of the state is on the succession issues with the ruling party, the democratic development of the state and how the current government can implement evidence-based policies. The question that remains unanswered today is why the President and First Secretary of ZANU-PF allowed his supporters across the 10th provinces to pursue the “ED2030” agenda, which was supposed to lead to at least two national constitutional amendments, which he ultimately rejected in toto.
Does this reflect a political marketing strategy for the President and his cabal, factional conflicts, or a potential military influence (military-assisted transition) within the ruling party? The “ED2030” resolution sought amendments to sections 91 and 95 of the Zimbabwean Constitution, which cap the Presidency at two five-year terms, and section 328(7), which prohibits any incumbent from benefiting from the changes to term limits. However, in the words of Cde Chimanasa, the President dismissed the extension of his term limits: “If it’s not the Kagame Politics 101 of the people says l must continue strategy”. The push by the ED2030 campaign from across the 10th provinces was a blatant attempt to prioritize party loyalty and entrenchment over the democratic development of the state. If the President “did not refuse” to the resolution and allowed the two amendments to be done, then he should have set and introduced a legal precedent that permits tampering with the national constitution for personal gain and risks normalizing authoritarianism and undermining democratic foundations set in the constitution.
History has taught us that ZANU PF supporters and party structures are not loyal, nor are they principled. In 2017, before the coup or a military-assisted transition, when the President (former Vice-President) was expelled from the party and government, there were celebrations and hullaballoo across the provinces, and within a space of two weeks, they had already overturned to support the Vice President in his ascendence to the President. The ED2030 campaign supporters reflect that ZANU-PF structures are short-terminist, opportunities and lack ideological principles. The NPC resolutions have failed to address the day-in-day-out challenges of the general population in Zimbabwe but rather concentrated on internal power consolidation and testing loyalties. The greater policy areas that should have shaped the NPC should have been discussion around controlling high inflation, gaining public support for public policies, alleviation of poverty, and ensuring that public servants earn a living wage.
What’s next for the people of Zimbabwe?
While the ruling ZANU-PF has succeeded in destroying the opposition in Zimbabwe, there is still a need for public participation in decision-making, which needs the opposition, civic society organizations, student unions, and trade unions to provide checks and balances to the current government. Where are these actors? Did the ruling party also manage to silence the voices of pressure groups, trade unions, and non-state actors in Zimbabwe? The opposition has been swallowed, and the Former CCC President, Nelson Chamisa, resigned from his own party despite his supporters, allies, and inner cabals still providing and recognizing him as their leader. Other opposition formations that were making noise during the 2023 election campaign period are no way to be found. With the ZANU-PF resolution to extend the term limit, the opposition should have been at the forefront to educate the people about the ramifications of such actions, it should have a platform to provide an alternative system parallel to the Zanufication of Zimbabwe.
What is lacking within the political environment in Zimbabwe is a political system that believes in evidence-based policy-making. Policy processes across the globe are “muddling through” and described as a “swampy lowland where solutions are confusing messes, incapable of technical solutions.” Thus, by evidence-based policymaking, I mean that government policy must be evidence-based, based on best practices, and properly evaluated. Policymakers such as those responsible for the monitory and fiscal policy (Minister of Finance and Economic Development and the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe) must be soundly based on evidence of what worked in the past or other countries and what failed to work in Zimbabwe or across the globe. With the current political instability and intolerance, it is clear that neither the government nor opposition formations are looking at long-term results. They are only concerned about the immediate impact that their policies can create. As a result, the economy completely stops focusing on long-term policy stability.
The other factor is that industrialists and investors avoid making critical decisions where there are no clear transitions of powers or clear succession plans within a government system. This is because a change in the government may also mean a difference in the government’s approach and priorities, particularly in its foreign policy stance. The “2nd Republic” introduced the “Open for Business” foreign policy stance when it comes to power, trying to make a shift from President Robert Mugabe´s Look East Policy. Thus, without a clear succession plan within the ruling party, Zimbabwe will continue to attract fewer Foreign Direct Investments. Many times, the change of policies of a government entirely changes the viability of business projects or investments in a state. Investors want to avoid the risk of their projects becoming redundant due to inconsistent government policies and political character changes. Hence, they prefer to play the wait and watch the game. This negatively impacts the economy since the economic output and the jobs that could have been created now are being postponed.
Lastly, there is a need for an opposition that is people-centered, and that believes in evidence-based policymaking. The opposition should be an alternative government in waiting. Hence, it should have SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-bound) policies that are data and evidence-driven. The opposition in Zimbabwe has been for years a Westernized human rights-centered movement driven by either ZANU-PF must go, or Mugabe must go mantra without clear ideological orientation, clear principles that are Indigenous centered and protect the interests and aspirations of the general population of Zimbabwe. What made the opposition gain momentum and the support of the urbanites in Zimbabwe is the fact that ZANU-PF has failed to provide employment, build the local industry, and pay civil servants a living wage and high levels of corruption through tenderpreneurship, nepotism, and regionalism. However, that did not mean that the opposition has provided a solid governance plan to the people, and it has also failed to run the local urban authorities that it has been in charge of for years.
The opposition needs to work towards creating a corporatist system of governance. Although corporatist systems are notoriously difficult to establish and maintain, particularly so in more heterogeneous and schismatic societies like Zimbabwe, in which democratic rule, to be stable and effective, may need to organize the relationships between civil society, political society, and the state in very different ways: The nature and impact of democratic political institutions are heavily influenced by the character and behavior of organized groups in ‘civil society,’ their heterogeneity, their capacity to coalesce, and the nature of their relationships with the parties and state institutions. Thus, corporatism becomes a specific way of organizing the links between the state, political society, and civil society to create the political consensus, stability, and capacity needed for longer-term developmental decision-making and evidence-based policymaking.
About the Author
Gwaze Takudzwa M is a Policy Analyst, Researcher, and consultant.